The Aden Forecast
Dollar bulls continue to dance in the streets!
Gold & Silver are off to a good start to the week.
Good Day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Easter Monday that is! In the past I’ve always taken Easter Monday off… But this year, with me taking off last Thursday and Friday, I thought I had better get back in the saddle and get to work today… I don’t feel much like writing, as the effects of a great Easter celebration at the Butler House was had, and… well, I’m tired… but I won’t let that stop me! If you only knew how many times in the past that I’ve been near asleep a I wrote, tired from the effects of chemo, and what have you… The Guess Who greets me this morning with their song: No Time “no time left for you”
Pfennig Tradition calls for the Beatles and their song Tax Man for today is Tax Day… Let me tell you how it will be
There's one for you, nineteen for me.
'Cause I'm the taxman.
Yeah, I'm the taxman.
Should five percent appear too small.
Be thankful I don't take it all.
'Cause I'm the taxman.
Yeah, I'm the taxman.
I’ve paid my fair share of taxes through the years, and always thought I was paying way too much, so this song has a special place in my heart!
Well, the stock market was closed on Good Friday, but the banks were open… Hmmm… With the banks being open, meant that the price manipulators were all in their places with bright shiny faces… And they took a pound of flesh from Gold & Silver just for the hell of it, on Friday… Gold lost $3 on Friday, to close the week at $1,975.20, and Silver lost a plug nickel on the day to close the week at $25.77.
Gold had gained every day last week, until we got to Friday… Hmmm.
The dollar was on the rampage again on Friday… These dollar bulls are really buying the line that the Fed is going to be aggressive and wipe out inflation… Yeah, and I’ve got a bridge for sale… I’m just saying… The BBDXY (dollar index) rose almost 6 index points on Friday to close the week at 1,211.00… I guess Wednesday’s stupid CPI rise wasn’t enough to scare the dollar bulls away for more than one day…
Do, you, dear reader, believe the Fed/ cabal/ Cartel is going to remain aggressive enough to beat down inflation? I don’t, and I don’t mean to sway your opinion, but think about that for just a few moments, and then come back and state your position… To effectively beat down inflation, the interest rate needs to be much greater than the inflation rate… So, even if we use the watered down version of consumer inflation at 8.5%, that would mean that interest rates would have to rise to 15%… How did I come up with that 15% rate? Well, in the late 70’s early 80’s inflation was at 13%, and Volcker had to hike rates to 20%, to get inflation beaten down… So, I just used his model…
And how many rate hikes will it take to break the stock market? For that I go to Michael Pento who wrote a long article for www.dollarcollapse.com, and I’ll only use a snippet of his article: “The major point here is the amount of debt has increased significantly in both nominal terms and as a percent of GDP after each recession. This means the level of interest rates it takes to break the economy keeps reducing. In the year 2000, it took a Fed Funds Rate of 6.5% before the market melted down. Leading up to the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, that level dropped to 5.25%. Then, due to the massive leverage prompted by the Fed and Treasury following that crash, it then took a FFR of just 2.5% to cause the credit markets to freeze and stocks to falter in 2018. Today, it will probably take a FFR with just a one-percent handle before the financial markets once again meltdown.”
Chuck again… So, Jerome Powell, says that along with tapering $95 million each month beginning in May, that his Cabal, will hike rates 50 Basis Points (1/2%), at his next two meetings, with the first one coming in May, and the other one coming 6 weeks later in June… You may recall me telling last week that James Rickards believes that the stock market will crash on June 15th… Now, that’s all lining up with 1% of rate hikes by the beginning of June, and a stock crash a few days later…
I’m not a stock jockey, nor do I play one on TV… But when two different people are pointing toward something, I pay attention… And the fact that they came about their conclusions two different ways… Man, maybe I should have taken Easter Monday off, eh?
The point here is that the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel, is way behind the inflation 8-ball, and have really just begun to talk about beating it down aggressively. There’s an old song that goes like this: Too Much, Too Little, Too late… And that will be over $200,000 that Powell gets paid, wasted…
And the word is spreading about that will require the U.S. to enter into WWIII to get past all these problems they are currently having, with debt, inflation, weak economy, etc. I for one hope these people talking about that will be proven to be wrong… I needn’t say more…
In the overnight markets last night… The dollar bulls continue to kick tail and take names later! The BBDXY has gained over 3 more index points overnight, and trades this morning at 1,214.63… The euro has fallen below 1.08, the Aussie dollar (A$) has fallen below 74-cents, and so on… With the Russian ruble being the only currency that's not getting caught up in all this dollar strength…
Gold is up $15 this morning, and Silver is up 46-cents, so they are well on their way to having excellent days. The price of Oil is off a bit this morning, after gaining last week to a $107 handle. And that brings us to bonds… The yield on the 10-year Treasury is 2.86%… Where will it stop? Well, certainly not here, especially if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is really going to hike rates aggressively…
You see, if the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel is out of the bond buying business, (they say this time is for real when they begin tapering in May) Then bond buyers are going to demand higher yields to combat inflation, and without the boys and girls at the Eccles Building buying bonds and keeping yields low… Thee are no more governors on bonds, folks… Yields are rising, or as John Fogarty sang, "I see a bad moon a 'risen… "
So, have you heard the news that Russia is ready to unveil their new financial payments system to rival SWIFT? I’ve highlighted their previous attempts to come up with a payments system, although, I knew in my heart of hearts that they would eventually succeed… And it now appears that have done just that!
The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week, had March Retail Sales, and they were very disappointing… albeit better than Feb’s print, but still disappointing, gaining only .05% for the month… Something doesn’t jive here… Remember when I told you the awful state of Consumer Credit In March? The credit card debt had exploded during the month, so if that’s the case, what the heck were they buying? Only the Shadow Knows…
The Data Cupboard this week is all about housing… And there will be Fed Head speaker or two out on the speaking circuit this week. One of them will be St. Louis Fed President, James Bullard, who recently has really changed horses in the middle of the stream, in that he has long be an interest rate dove, but now he’s jumped on the bandwagon calling for more aggressive rate hikes…
If the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel hadn’t spent 6 months lying to us about inflation, they could have been well on their way to beating it back by now,…. But NOOOOOOO! And when I think about this further, it's been longer than 6 months… Last August I wrote about how food prices were soaring… But that wasn't good enough for the economists at the Eccles Building! You can’t begin to tell me that they didn’t / or couldn’t figure out if the inflation was real… They do employ 100’s of economists to figure this stuff out… So, if they didn’t know it, they should all be fired! And if they did know it, then they lied to us…
See? I’m a logical thinking kind of guy, and this logic tells that either they knew and lied, or they didn’t know, and there they should all be fired!
I had a talk with Kathy’s sister’s husband yesterday… He was telling me that he has all kinds of jobs lined up but he can’t find anyone to work for him! He said, I don’t know how these folks that don’t want to work, are getting by? I then pointed out that credit card debt had soared last month… Now that’s a recipe for disaster if you ask me, and this time the Gov’t isn’t going to bail them out, not the moms and pops of the country they aren’t!
To recap… The dollar bulls are dancing in the streets, with the dollar getting pushed to new heights every day… Only on Wednesday last week when the stupid CPI printed did the dollar bulls take a rest… Gold gained every day last week except Friday… Chuck points out the problem with waiting too long to hike rates, and then brings in Michael Pento to explain what’s going to happen in June… And the overnight markets have the dollar getting bought, but also getting bought is Gold & Silver…
For What It’s Worth… Well, in Alabama last week they passed legislature to keep the sales tax on Gold & Silver sales exempt… It was schedule to expire in a could of months, so they took care of business ahead of time… Kudos to them! That article can be found here: Alabama Passes Sound Money Law, Expands Sales Tax Exemption Involving Gold and Silver (moneymetals.com)
Here’s your snippet: “With Governor Kay Ivey’s signature on sound money legislation today, Alabama has become the second state this year to expand its sales tax exemption involving gold and silver.
Alabama Senate Bill 13, championed by Sen. Tim Melson and Rep. Jamie Kiel, passed with unanimous support out of the Alabama Senate and then passed unanimously through the Alabama House before making it to the Governor’s desk.
In 2019, Alabama originally removed sales taxes from most gold, silver, platinum, and palladium coins and bars. This year, SB 13 clarified that the exemption covers all common forms of bullion, removed burdensome reporting requirements, and extended the sales tax exemption until 2028.
Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state supporters, SB 13 now fully ensures that Yellowhammer State citizens cannot be penalized with taxation when acquiring the monetary metals for investment, to protect their savings from the ravages of inflation, or any other reason.
Stefan Gleason, President of Money Metals Exchange, explained the importance of extending the existing sales tax exemption on precious metals: “Many states surrounding Alabama (Georgia and Florida) have cultivated pro-sound money environments, eliminating sales taxes on gold and silver. Alabama savers and investors are thankful that the legislature expanded and extended the state’s exemption.”
Chuck again… This should propel other states to follow suit, and open the door to more physical metals buying!
Market prices 4/18/2022: American Style : A$ .7368, kiwi .6738, C$ .7914, euro 1.0794, sterling 1.3018, Swiss 1.0597, European Style : rand 14.6863, krone 8.8258, SEK 9.5758, forint 347.46, zloty 4.2803, koruna 22.6329, RUB 80.61, yen 126.60, sing 1.3605, HKD 7.8431, INR 76.05, China 6.3673, peso 19.96, BRL 4.7014, BBDXY 1,214.63, Dollar Index 100.67, Oil $106.41, 10-year 2.86%, Silver$26.24, Platinum $1, 009.00, Palladium $2,391.00, Copper $4.66, and Gold… $1,993.30.
That’s it for today… Well, the dermatologist on Thursday morning really hurt me… She had to remove some stuff from head scalp and it hurt. She kept telling me, “I know his hurts, but hang on”… And then I was up almost all Thursday night with pain… But things were better, until last night… UGH! I also got my shingles vaccine last week, and my arm feels like I pitched 12 innings! I don’t know why I put that off for so long, but just knowing that I could get shingles, made me get to the doctor to get the shot… Well, today is tax day… I hope your taxes turned out good for you, whether that be a flat return or a big fat return! OK… The J. Geils Band takes us to the finish line today with their song: Must Have Got Lost… I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today, and please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
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